On the Threshold: Will Steffen's "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene"

 

“Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” was written by an international coalition of scientists led by Will Steffen, an American chemist who specializes in the field of climatology. The coalition includes members with backgrounds in global sustainability, water resource management, oceanography, earth system science, environmental science, geography, development, and many more. The diverse backgrounds represented by this project create a product aimed at a general audience.. “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States of America (PNAS), which describes itself as “one of the world's most-cited and comprehensive multidisciplinary scientific journals, publishing more than 3,300 research papers annually.” PNAS aims “to publish only the highest quality scientific research and to make that research accessible to a broad audience.” Accessibility is a large part of their mission as a publication. Accessibility is key to “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene,” too, as the article is brief, and clearly outlines its objective. 

“Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” calls for “Earth Systems Stewardship [as] an essential precondition for the prosperous development of human societies in a Stabilized Earth pathway."{ The Earth System described represents geological and biological processes and feedback loops that sustain the biosphere in its current state through glacial and interglacial periods. Over the last 1.2 million years, this system has remained bounded within glacial and interglacial extremes. It takes 100,000 years for the System to oscillate between the extremes. 

The anthropocene represents the beginning of a very rapid human-driven trajectory of the Earth System away from the glacial-interglacial limit cycle towards new, hotter climatic conditions and a profoundly different biosphere…. The current position, at 1°C above a preindustrial baseline, is nearing the upper envelope of interglacial conditions over the last 1.2 million years. 

 “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” establishes several ‘thresholds’ that if crossed, would disrupt the cycle of glacial-interglacial periods. There are several biological and physical feedback loops within the Earth System that can maintain, amplify, or change its current trajectory, several of which have already been distorted by anthropogenic factors. Humans today stand in a unique position of influence over the Earth System. Our contribution to the restoration of negative feedback loops and our commitment to the maintenance of these feedback loops will either lead to the “Hothouse Earth” scenario, where we will experience climatic conditions not seen in 1.2 million years or, the “Stabilized Earth” where the Earth System remains within the thresholds of the Holocene’s glacial-interglacial cycle. Crucially “the Earth System is maintained [only] at a state with a temperature rise no greater than 2°C above preindustrial." Maintenance is the key word here. Steffen and his partners “emphasize that Stabilized Earth is not an intrinsic state of the Earth System but rather, one in which humanity commits to a pathway of ongoing management of its relationship with the rest of the Earth System.” Steffen and his partners argue that we have a very limited window of time to commit to this path. 

“Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” represents a dramatic shift in the way that our species interacts with nature, a shift with implications social and religious as well as technological as profound as those of the flood myths common across a wide range of cultures. These myths usually represent a deity that has sent a flood to destroy civilization in an act of retribution. This makes sense: before the advent of modern science, how else could humans contextualize their helplessness? We are no longer helpless however. If religion has served as a way for natural events to be absorbed by human society in the past, now it must act as a bridge between human intent and natural events. “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” places agency squarely upon human society in terms of the climate crisis. The time of passive interaction with natural phenomena is over. 

Creating a Stabilized Earth pathway can only be achieved and maintained by a coordinated, deliberate effort by human societies to manage our relationship with the rest of the Earth System, recognizing that humanity is an integral, interacting component of the system. Yet while this point is essential, this article does almost nothing to contextualize the way that the climate crisis began. Can we really understand the “critical decisions and actions” we must take without recognizing that the climate crisis is a multifaceted result of interconnected systems of human oppression not only of the environment but of other human beings? Colonialism, white supremacy, development, capitalism, orientalism, nationalism, and globalization have all contributed to the climate crisis. “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene” is a powerful call to action, but when talking about climate change and the anthropocene, it is important to acknowledge the human structures creating the climate crisis. We may also need to turn anew to religion as we discern how to live justly with each other in an increasingly destabilized environment. 

(QL)

Picture source: www.realtor.com/news/trends/best-and-worst-spots-to-go-to-survive-the-apocalypse/